So the Cinderella Run is complete: Fabricio Werdum is the heavyweight champion of the world after dominating Cain Velasquez at UFC 188. I’ve already analyzed Werdum’s win and the new question becomes: Who’s next and can they beat Werdum?
There are three likely candidates for the unlikeliest of champions.
Cain Velasquez
Unless Cain reinvents himself as a fighter, I don’t like his chances.
Yes ring rust and altitude were factors that mitigated Cain’s legendary pace but strategically Werdum proved to be a perfect foil for Cain. His grappling was threatening enough that the champion was uncomfortable going to ground which reduced Cain to clinch work and striking. In the clinch, his half power punches that served to tire an opponent out were no match for the brutal knees he was taking.
It took less than a round for Velasquez to abandon his clinch work entirely and instead engage Werdum in a striking battle in the open canvas.
Big mistake.
The gaping holes in Cains striking that were previously compensated by takedown attempts and clinch work work were on full display. His penchant for moving forward but lack of head movement made even half hearted jabs snap his head back and stop him in his tracks. Looping combinations that looked sound when paired with clinch work and ground work looked sloppy when forced to stay at range.
A better conditioned, more prepared Cain Velasquez would undoubtedly make for a more competitive fight. But unless he can shore up his defensive holes with preemptive head movement and clinch defense, he’ll only be delaying the same result in a rematch.
Werdum via 4th round submission
Junior Dos Santos
Junior Dos Santos pisses me off. He is the most gifted offensive heavyweight after Fedor Emelianenko but an idiot savant with his back on the fence.
There is something truly baffling about a fighter who will throw a ramrod cross to the body to drop an opponent’s guard and then level change upwards to crack a left hook to the head but also skip merrily along the cage with his hands at his waist.
Throw the first fight between Junior and Werdum out the window; it was too short and Werdum has evolved leaps and bounds. Junior, however, has remained relatively the same.
Junior’s movement is on a straight line when striking. As basic as it sounds, there are some tangible advantages to this style: it’s easier to gauge distance, it adds power to straight punches, and it’s a lot easier on the knees (why hello there Dominick). But moving straight backwards is a surefire way to get one’s back against the cage where Junior essentially offers free shots at his face. Only Cain Velasquez and Stipe Miocic managed to take advantage of this and despite executing this strategy to perfection Miocic still lost. Junior’s defense against the cage is abysmal but on open canvas he is an absolute terror.
Against Mark Hunt (the best technical striker at heavyweight), Junior Dos Santos was getting cracked by his opponent’s legendary counter left hook whenever he stepped in. So what did he do? He stepped in anyway, baited the left hook, then countered over the top with an overhand right for a knockdown. Do you understand how good a fighter has to be to even attempt that against Mark Hunt? If you told Steve-O that you planned to bait and counter strike Hunt, he would pull the cactus out of his anus and call you an imbecile.
Despite what Werdum showed against Velasquez and Browne, he has his own defensive holes. Cain’s sloppy, looping punches at the edge of his range may not have exploited it but Werdum doesn’t have much head movement either. Plus his habit of throwing body kicks with little set up has led to two knockdowns off counter punches in his last two fights.
So the question is can Fabricio Werdum take advantage of Junior Dos Santos’s weaknesses while covering his own?
Well, no.
Werdum has proven his doubters wrong time and time again but I’m having serious trouble believing he has a chance.
Remember that despite expending huge amounts of energy to do so, Junior defended the majority of takedown attempts from Cain (a far superior wrestler to Werdum). Werdum has neither the speed or wrestling to get the fight on the ground, the power to take out Junior’s stupidly resilient chin, nor the striking to match him.
Dos Santos via 3rd round KO
Andrei Arlovski
Let’s be honest, THIS is the fight everyone wants to see.
After a sloppy win over Brendan Schaub and a surprising (but ultimately unimpressive) knockout over a TRT-less BIgfoot Silva, Arlovski shocked everyone by almost literally knocking the beard off of Travis Browne while having a bum leg.
Similar to the Junior Dos Santos matchup, the previous fight can be disregarded. Both fighters are smarter but also older and slower. These two fighters last fought eight years ago and since then Werdum has revamped his game while Arlovski seems to have built a time machine.
While it’s not well known, Arlovski has some serious defensive wrestling. There’s a reason he doesn’t have submission losses even when fighting grappling specialists; no one can get him to the ground long enough to grab a limb. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Werdum could actually shoot in on Arlovski and complete a takedown.
While Arlovski is the hardest hitter in the division after Mark Hunt he is still essentially a one handed puncher. Don’t get me wrong; he can catch anyone at any time with his dexterous right hand. Against Bigfoot he managed to sneak his hand in between Silva’s guard and around his arm for the follow up punch. Against Travis Browne he caught him coming in with a low cross, a backfist when he stood up from slipping a punch, a clubbing blow with his wrist over Browne’s guard, and an uppercut as he was hunched over.
Roy Nelson he is not.
But while Werdum doesn’t have the best head movement he’s still savvy and would most likely begin circling to Arlovski’s left after absorbing a few solid shots. Arlovski still has a good left hook and a devastating switch head kick but neither is the omnipresent threat his right hand is.
The true variable is Arlovski’s chin. While his chin has miraculously “reappeared” since he stopped his bad habit of walking straight backwards with his head held high, there’s undoubtedly some irreversible mileage.
There’s no risk of him getting knocked out by Werdum, but getting knocked down is a real concern. While Werdum cannot wrestle Arlovski to the ground it is very conceivable that he can catch him with a short shot and then gain top position. The man who lured Fedor Emelianenko into his guard to triangle choke him and locked a guillotine on Cain Velasquez will have no problem submitting Arlovski if he can get on top of him.
So the fight boils down to a coin flip between two equally likely scenarios: either Arlovski takes advantage of the striking inadequacies of Werdum to repeatedly punish him with his howitzer of a right hand OR Werdum catches the semi-chinny Arlovski and then locks in a submission.
As much as I love Andrei Arlovski, the second scenario seems far more likely.
Werdum via 3rd Round Submission
